Jude Bellingham at Liverpool: transfer request, Henderson obligation, what it would really cost
It’s been a week since Jude Bellingham and Liverpool faced each other again.
Former Premier League midfielder Craig Hignett turned the transfer rumor mill when he told BBC Radio Merseyside that he had been told Jude Bellingham was ready to move from Borussia Dortmund to Liverpool.
“I think I heard him in good faith and can’t say where I heard him from, but apparently he said he was linked to Liverpool,” the former Middlesbrough man said and Blackburn Rovers, now an expert. .
Hignett’s comments grew in popularity, with Bellingham himself even citing a particular article with a photo of him smiling as he played for England. This tweet was quickly deleted, a move that only added to the intrigue surrounding the entire saga.
Bellingham is a player who is understood to have Liverpool as a fan, although any discussion of a move is premature.
When Jude Bellingham was deciding where his future lay in 2019, Liverpool were in the picture.
By the age of 16, the midfielder had burst onto the scene with Birmingham City and by the time he left the club a year later he had already amassed 41 league games, scored four goals and retired his shirt number in an effort to inspire the next crop of young talent at the Midlands club.
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The destination he chose was not Liverpool, Bellingham instead followed in the footsteps of his England team-mate Jadon Sancho by signing for Borussia Dortmund, the promise of more consistent playing time and a top-level platform to allow it to flourish away from the Prime Minister’s goldfish bowl. The League tips the scales in favor of the Bundesliga, which paid some Â£ 22.5million for their services.
It all seems like a long time ago, but Bellingham is still only 18 and turns 19 next June.
In the highest level of German football he shone, so much so that his performances were recognized with eight caps in England and a place in the squad at Euro 2020.
Dortmund’s success in offering their platform to young players has seen them land Sancho, Bellingham and Erling Haaland.
Sancho left for Â£ 73million at Manchester United this summer, Haaland is set to leave next summer and Bellingham, too, is now heavily linked with a move with the most likely outcome indicating he finally arrives in the Premier League .
Liverpool have been linked and will likely be among those courting his services next summer, a summer when Fenway Sports Group owners will need to invest in what are an aging squad.
Bellingham fits the profile and has already forged a strong bond with Reds skipper Jordan Henderson, which may well play a role in his thinking about his future next summer if the opportunity presents itself.
But having already sold Â£ 22.5million at 17, and since achieving success in Germany, England and the Champions League, how much would it take to bring a player of that profile to Anfield next summer?
The FSG have been notoriously difficult to open their wallet unless there have been significant spending, and engineering a move to have Bellingham away from Borussia Dortmund will likely require them to spit over 85 million pounds, especially as the German side looks set to lose their crown jewel to Haaland for far less than its market value next summer, with its Â£ 68million release clause sterling coming into effect from 2022. This means that they will not be in a rush to sell another valuable asset, and certainly not for less than its market value.
Dortmund don’t need to sell at the moment. They know they have Haaland left and they have cashed Â£ 78million from the sale of Sancho to Manchester United. Bellingham, which cost them Â£ 25million in 2020, is now worth between Â£ 100million and Â£ 127million according to the CIES Football Observatory, which monitors player data and market conditions to present information on the transfer value.
Attacking players command the highest fees, and it always has been, and Sancho’s Â£ 73million transfer from Dortmund to Manchester United this summer was lower than the Â£ 89million that KPMG analysts were facing had evaluated the English striker.
Sancho had more experience, more England caps, but his contract was due to expire in two years, and with Dortmund knowing they would be unlikely to hire him after 2023, they made the decision to sell him so that its value was still holding reasonably well. .
The German side have more security on Bellingham’s contract and likely won’t be under any real pressure to sell, especially if they face the prospect of losing Haaland next summer, which looks increasingly unlikely.
This should maintain Bellingham’s value, although it still seems likely that they would be unable to recover the kind of money they received for Sancho.
Confidence in football is returning thanks to fans returning to stadiums and improved business activity, and this will likely translate into a bigger spend next summer than what was seen in the window just happened. to close.
More clubs will be at the table for Bellingham, but given that Liverpool haven’t spent big and their profile to take players to the next level, Bellingham may well find this to be the best fit of what will be on offer.
Taking salary into account will be another obstacle. Bellingham was earning Â£ 42,000 a week at Dortmund until the German club were forced to double their pay to avoid Chelsea interest this summer.
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But given that signing a player like Bellingham would likely mean he would be an integral part, Liverpool’s salary structure would accommodate anything above the Â£ 100,000 a week mark, which he would seek undoubtedly to be achieved in the Premier League as a salary.
Let’s say he had another bump from what he started at Dortmund which would take him to around Â£ 125,000 a week, roughly the mark of what Liverpool are currently paying Naby Keita and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. This works out to around Â£ 6.5million per year.
FSG does things with a long-term view. If they were to tap into the market for someone like Bellingham and offer him, say, a six-year contract for Â£ 100million and then amortized over the term of the contract which would actually be around 16 , Â£ 6million a year they would spend in accounting terms. This would represent an estimated annual expenditure of Â£ 23.1million to fund a deal with Bellingham over the term of his contract.
For someone who looks set to reach world-class levels and will be under 30 in a decade yet, Liverpool owners may see this as a wise investment rather than a costly exercise that wouldn’t pay off much. long-term.
Players with such experience and quality at such a young age are indeed rare. And so that they are English and their values ââare not inflated because of it, which happens with Premier League clubs when they are looking for young English talent, it could represent the moment when the FSG makes a lot of noise by investing in the gaming team.
Liverpool’s lack of transfer activity this summer, where only Ibrahima Konate arrived for Â£ 36million from RB Leipzig, indicates, fans hope, that FSG owners will make more available to manager Jurgen next summer. Klopp, himself a former Dortmund boss.
Players with such experience and quality at such a young age are indeed rare. And so that they are English and their values ââare not inflated because of it, which happens with Premier League clubs when they are looking for young English talent, it could represent the moment when the FSG makes a lot of noise by investing in the game team.
A version of this article first appeared online on September 7, 2021.