Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. It was only the second decline in nine working days, although they remained stable on Monday. Fortunately, all of the recent moves have been small. This means that these rates remain extremely low.

It looks like it does again Mortgage rates today can be unchanged or hardly changed. This morning’s inflation figures were subdued and very close to expectations.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 1st, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 1st, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, Click here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

I see little reason to believe that mortgage rates are likely to go up or down much in the near future. They’ve been moving in a narrow area for some time and it’s hard to identify reasons why they should suddenly leave.

Of course, that’s not a promise. There is always the risk that the markets will suddenly pick up momentum. But that may be smaller now than it is sometimes.

Perhaps I am too far on the caution side. But my instinct in such circumstances is to lock in, on the grounds that the gains from floating are likely to be minimal. So my personal rate lock recommendations are:

• LOCK when close in 7th Days
• LOCK when close in fifteen Days
• LOCK when close in 30th Days
• HOVER when close in 45 Days
• HOVER when close in 60 Days

But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily prove as good as mine – or better. So let your gut instinct and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday morning, were:

• the 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 1.14%. (Neutral for mortgage interestMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
• Important stock indices were higher When opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
• Oil prices rose from $ 57.29 a barrel to $ 58.47. (Bad for mortgage rates * there Energy prices play a major role Generate inflation and also point out future economic activity.)
• Gold prices increased from to $ 1,848 $ 1,834 per ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Increased from 62 to 67 from 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and some days it can overwhelm investor sentiment.

Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they need to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are unlikely to move much today, if they do at all.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 1st, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should put these rates under further pressure. But it can’t always work miracles. And read “For once, the Fed is influencing mortgage rates. Here’s why”If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
2. Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
3. Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
5. In the event of minor price changes, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
6. The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so forth

I am expect mortgage rates to remain stable today. But as always, that can change during the day.

The global management consultancy McKinsey & Company wrote in a newsletter overnight:

The US is aiming for a transition to normal – likely by the second quarter of 2021, with herd immunity likely to be reached in the third or fourth quarter. Strong public health actions will continue to be critical to saving lives during this period.

McKinsey & Company, Newsletter “On Point”, February 10, 2021

Of course, McKinsey recognizes risk factors that could change this prediction. But at the moment it seems like a reasonable scenario. And as long as it lasts, this positive outlook is likely to put upward pressure on mortgage rates in the coming weeks and months.

And it joins other influences that are also often associated with higher mortgage rates, including higher government spending and borrowing.

Of course, the economy is still suffering and its recovery is painfully slow. You can therefore expect periods in which these prices will fall lower. But we may be seeing a departure from the recent road leading to increasingly cheaper mortgages. Just don’t expect any quick changes – at least for now.

For more background on my broader thinking, see our latest Weekend editionwhich is released every Saturday just after 10 p.m. (ET).

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates has clearly been down in recent months. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The last such weekly record was on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then interest rates rose, if only modestly. And in Freddie’s February 4th report, that weekly average was 2.73%.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. And they were all released between January 14th and 20th:

However, with so many imponderables, current projections can be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening in spreads over the course of the year.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal supervisory authority Consumer Protection Office says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. That might not sound like a lot, but If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new plan (October 1st, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners daily. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.