The UK is in a different position. Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its forecast for growth this year from 6% to 3.8%.

But the size of this revision is not a reflection of a huge effect on the British economy from the Russian invasion. Rather, it reflects the fact that a lot has happened since the last OBR forecast, released in October, about five months ago. At Capital Economics, our forecast for the annual GDP growth rate has not changed much from two months ago.

Of course, the UK should suffer adverse effects, not so much from our direct trade links with Russia, which are quite minor, but rather from the impact of rising energy prices on consumers and the negative impact on our weak economic goods exports elsewhere, particularly in the Eurozone, which remains our largest export market. But, more than offsetting these effects, the UK had a stronger than expected start to the year as the omicron wave came under control.

Two countries where the economic outlook now looks a little stronger than it did a few months ago are the United States and Australia. Both countries have suffered adverse effects from the war, but both also experienced a strong rebound in economic activity at the start of the year as Covid damage receded.

It now looks like the economic outlook in China is a bit weaker than it was a few months ago. This is not only due to the negative impact of rising energy prices and a harsh response to the resurgence of Covid, but also due to the impact of weaker economic growth in the world on the demand for Chinese exports. In Japan too, GDP growth is expected to be slightly lower than it was a few months ago.

The countries now looking to enjoy much stronger economic growth this year are the oil producers. It seems likely that growth in Saudi Arabia this year will be nearly 3% higher than what seemed likely a few months ago.

Many emerging markets should see some benefits from rising commodity prices. But these beneficial effects will be largely offset by the harmful effects of additional monetary tightening to control inflation. Brazil is a key example.

This points to the greatest risk of recent events for most countries in the global economy – including us. It’s that central banks are frightened by sharp rises in inflation to dramatically raise interest rates. This could easily cause a recession.

Roger Bootle is president of Capital Economics. You can email him at [email protected]