Cardiff may need 19,000 to 30,500 new homes to be built over the next 15 years.

The exact speed at which the city is expected to grow is the subject of debate as Cardiff Council launches a broad consultation on its local development plan.

Another question is how many of these new houses should be built in the countryside or in urban areas.

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The development plan is a hugely important council document that shapes the evolution of the city through 2036, and the consultation lasts for 10 weeks until February 8.

The first phase of the consultation examines how many new housing and jobs the city may need over the next 15 years, with three specific options. Currently, developers already have plans for an additional 15,400 housing units – which have yet to be built – using the existing local development plan.

However, it is possible that not all of them are actually built. Some additional “great sites” are also likely to arise, where developers are building houses not allocated in the development plan.

Thus, taking these elements into account, the first option would mean 2,140 additional housing units required, as well as 30,000 new jobs. That would mean 1,267 new homes built each year, for a total of 19,000 by 2036.

The second option would mean 7,640 additional housing units needed and 32,000 new jobs. That would mean 1,600 new homes built each year, for a total of 24,000 homes by 2046. That could mean more affordable housing.

The third option would mean 14,790 additional housing units needed and 43,000 new jobs. That would mean 2,033 new homes built each year, for a total of 30,500 homes by 2036. This is based on population growth projections from the previous development plan, which some critics believe are too high.

Councilor Caro Wild, member of the cabinet responsible for strategic planning and transport, said: “The replacement of the LDP is going to shape the look of Cardiff for years to come, so it was really important for us to hear a range of views as broad as possible. . At this point in the process, we have access to a number of different scenarios about possible levels of growth in Cardiff through 2036 and the need for houses to be built to meet that growth.

“It is important that people understand the consequences of the options, as most growth scenarios will have pros and cons when it comes to important issues such as land for employment opportunities, impact on environment, meeting housing needs, supporting the delivery of community services and transportation infrastructure and how much truly affordable housing could be provided.

People can respond to the consultation by visiting the website https://cardiffldp.consultation.ai, while there will also be focus groups to collect the views of people who do not normally respond to the board consultations. .

The next phase of the consultation explores eight options on how the city should accommodate a growing population and how many houses should be built in the countryside or in urban areas.

The first option would be to expand the existing strategic sites, built in the countryside on the outskirts of the city. This would mean more affordable housing and a wider range of housing, due to the cheaper construction costs of building on virgin sites.

Options two and three would see the new homes built primarily on urban brownfields, that is, land already developed. This would mean denser homes and could be more expensive to build with a smaller size range. Option four is similar, but focuses on building around existing district centers to create a “town of villages” concept.

Option five would see new houses built around existing transport links in urban areas; while option six would focus growth on proposed transportation improvements such as the metro and planned new stations, including some entirely new locations.

Option seven would focus on pristine sites not yet earmarked for development, in the countryside on the outskirts of Cardiff. Option eight would be a mix of using pristine sites and brownfields, in urban areas and in the countryside, to get the most out of both.

Cllr Wild added, “At this point in the process, all of the options presented in the consultation are potential options, rather than preferred options. The preferred strategy could combine a number of these options. All feedback from the public will be taken into account, along with other technical work, which will help the board prepare the preferred strategy that will be consulted with the public in the fall of 2022. “

This consultation follows a previous one held earlier this year, which focused on what the broader objectives of the Alternative Development Plan should look like. This included exploring how the city should deal with issues like the coronavirus and the climate crisis. The final plan is expected to be approved in October 2024.

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